Romney Prefers To Lose Primary Than Renounce RomneyCare

http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/284411/romney-prefers-lose-primary-rather-renounce-romneycare-katrina-trinko

 

The voters just might accomodate his preference.

 

--dmac

Rasmussen NH poll

The latest Rasmussen NH poll is out.  Romney's lead is still comfortable, but it has shrunk.

 

Over a week ago I noted a poll which saw a large drop in Romney's support and characterized it as a collapse.  I don't know much about that particular pollster to know if it is reliable or not.  Other polls coming out since then have not shown the same low level, and only one had any prior data points to determine any trend.  The Rasmussen poll seems to agree with the general trend, though I don't think it really consitutes a collapse.

 

                 10/25 11/28 chg

Romney      41      34      -7

Gingrich        8      24    +16

Paul            11      14     +3

Huntsman     7      11      +4

Cain            17       5     -12

Perry            4        2      -2

Bachmann    3        2      -1

Santorum      1       1

Other/Undec  8       7       -1

 

What's interesting is that the gains by Huntsman and Paul are exactly the amount of the loss by Romney.  And the gain by Gingrich is almost exactly the amount of the total lost by Cain, Perry and Bachmann.  When I do a similar analysis of the NH Journal/Magellan poll, the same pattern holds.  It looks like Gingrich's gains are mainly from consolidation of the conservative base, which makes sense, rather than from a serious threat to Romney's base.  And it makes some sense that Huntsman would get a second look from establishment type Romney supporters.  What doesn't make as much sense is the increase in support to Ron Paul coming at the expense of Romney (if that is in fact what is happening).  I guess it could be independents not being excited about Romney and giving Paul a closer look.

 

I have a hard time seeing Romney losing enough support to either Huntsman or Gingrich to endanger a primary win and to justify heavy campaigning in NH.  But it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

--dmac

Bandwagon?

So, I'm on the Newt bandwagon?  Ryan, you cut me to the quick :)  Hey, somebody has to provide some analysis here besides alternately marveling and decrying that the GOP electorate hasn't realized that Mitt is the obvious best candidate.  I'm not sure why that puts me on the Newt bandwagon.

 

The implication of jumping on the bandwagon is that I'm not considering who I'm associating with, just substituting the crowd's assessment for my own.  Leave aside the fact that I've not declared support for Gingrich, or even opposition to Romney, I've been pretty consistent in pointing out Newt's drawbacks.  While I think his ascent is of a different character than Perry's or Cain's and has the potential to be much more durable, I have pointed out that he could implode as well.  I think my eyes are pretty wide open.

 

What amazes me is that you could write, "If the electorate can forget the mistakes of the past, then Romney has a serious problem. . . but the problem is there are so many mistakes to forget," with no sense of irony.  Do you really think that Romney has no mistakes which the electorate needs to forget in order to fully support him?  Do you really think he has fewer than Newt?  I had written in a previous post, "He [Gingrich] has as much as Romney to explain in his record.  However, he has more in his record to recommend him as well, so don't be surprised if he gets more benefit of the doubt."  I stillthink that's a better statement of the situation.  If either Romney or Gingrich gets the nomination, it will be because the electorate can forget, or at least put aside, mistakes of the past.  But I think there's a lot more forgetting required in Mitt's case, and there's a lot more good to remember in Newt's.

 

Right now, the biggest thing to recommend Mitt as the nominee over Newt is that Mitt is polling better against Obama.  Surely you recognize the fluidity of that as well?  I think a clear-headed assessment of each candidate's vulnerabilities in the general election is in order and their ability to respond.  Right now, I don't see a clear advantange in the vulnerability category.  I don't have much faith in Romney's ability to do timely messaging.  I think Gingrich has the edge there, but we'll get to see it in action to fully evaluate now that he's the (current) front runner.

 

--dmac

It's about to "vet" serious

I'm disappointed, David. Jumping on the Newt bandwagon so early. As we've discussed, if this race is anything it's incredibly fluid. The opposition research on Newt is immense and will come out fast and furious over the next few weeks as demonstrated here, here and here. Yes, he should be taken seriously. Much more serious than any of the other 'fly-by-nighters' that have crossed Romney's way in the past. In fact, I would argue Gingrich is the only other serious candidate in the field.

The only question I have is whether or not there's enough time for the stuff to come out and settle. Romney's opposition research team has got to be burned out by now with all the 'flavor-of-the-month' candidates that have flown by but as I said, Gingrich is different.

If the electorate can forget the mistakes of the past, then Romney has a serious problem. . . but the problem is there are so many mistakes to forget.

- Ryan

Gingrich surge / Romney collapse in NH

Not sure this is the direction Romney wants to be going in NH.  This poll has consistently had Romney polling in the 36%-42% range (he was at 41% last month), even when Perry and Bachmann combined for 28% in August and when Cain "surged" to 20% last month.

 

The ascendency of Gingrich here has been a little different.  He has not only taken the support from Cain, Perry and Bachmann, he has apparently taken support from Mitt as well.  A drop from 41% to 29% in just a month where you are supposed to be a shoo in doesn't look good.  Also, the undecided has been steadily declining--13% in August, 9% last month and only 5% in this poll.

 

--dmac

Rasmussen Iowa -- Newt +13

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2012/election_2012_presidential_election/iowa/2012_iowa_republican_caucus

 

Rasmussen.  Iowa.  Newt. +13.  32%.  Wow.

 

--dmac

Amazing poll numbers

The new Fox News poll has Newt in front with 23%, ahead of Romney by 1 point.  Cain has slid to 15%.

 

The interesting numbers are in the breakouts for questions 7, 8 and 9 on the matchup of Romney, Cain and Gingrich against Obama.  Mitt is the only one that beats Obama, 44-42.  Cain and Gingrich lose 47-38 and 46-41 respectively.  What is interesting is that no matter which GOP candidate is running, between 9% and 13% of Republicans in the poll indicated they would actively pull the lever for Obama.  And between 24% and 28% of those identifying as conservative would vote for Romney.  Not that they are undecided or would not vote, but would vote for Obama.  Incredible.

 

Mitt generates the fewest defections from both Republicans and conservatives (9% and 24% respectively) and Cain the most (13% and 28%).  What that tells me is that Romney supporters, partisan Republicans and "conservatives", are the most likely to defect and vote against the party's nominee if it isn't their guy.

 

--dmac

Florida is key

As we have discussed, Florida is key to the nomination as it was in 2008. Romney and his camp seem to agree.

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/content/romney-counting-florida-win-gop-nomination-white-house

On another note, Erickson believes Cain is done. So do I. I do not believe he can recover this late in the race.

Here comes the Gingrich stuff.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-17/gingrich-defends-payments-from-freddie-mac-as-he-gets-increased-scrutiny.html

- Ryan

Ineptocracy

Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) - a system of government where the least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing, and where the members of society least likely to sustain themselves or succeed, are rewarded with goods and services paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers

- Ryan

re: Air Coming Out

Cain's slide in the polls have nothing to do with either the foreign policy debate on Saturday (he did not hurt himself terribly) or either of these two "gaffes".  And he isn't suffering from a comparison with well polished Romney since his support is not flowing to Romney.  The big driver in Cain's slide is a combination of the sexual harassment allegations, his campaign team's inept handling of them, and Newt's consistent shining in the debates.  While the GOP is still generally supportive of Cain and don't want to see him drop out, he still has the aura of damaged goods.  And, yes, there is a certain amount of not-ready-for-prime-time that hurts him, but it isn't his rambling on foreign policy but the disarray of his campaign team.

 

Cain certainly isn't as smooth as Romney.  But I'm not sure that hurts him so much with those who are not inclined to support Romney.  Romney's smoothness as he stakes multiple positions on Libya, doesn't so much make him look like a foreign policy genius as it reinforces the usual suspicion about him(i.e., he'll take whatever position is convenient at the time).  I'm not so sure that Cain's deliberateness in answering the Libya question makes him look like a bumbler to anyone but the Romney establishment crowd.  Note that we don't have the actual question he was asked, just his fumbling.  I seem to remember that being a defense of Romney when he was doing his tap dance / side step on the Ohio ballot issues.  I don't have a big problem to the answer Cain finally gave on Libya.  I would like to see Romney's (final) answer to how he would have handled it differently.

 

The collective bargaining "gaffe" is a non-issue.  It's kind of like Palin's "Bush Doctrine" gaffe.  The problem is in the question.  Federal employee unions do have collective bargaining rights.  If the reporter wanted to definitively nail Cain as uninformed or against orthodoxy, he should have specified collective bargaining for wages and benefits in the question.  Cain very well may have thought they have bargaining rights on wages and benefits.  I don't think you can assume that.  And I don't think you can assume that Cain didn't wasn't thinking about work rules, safety, etc.  The fact that there is a union is clearly an indication there is some measure of collective bargaining rights.  Of course there would be some incredulity when a reporter stated there wasn't.  At the same time, Cain could have turned the tables and demonstrated he was aware of the difference and forced the reporter to clarify.

 

I've said before that Cain needs to up his game.  My defense above notwithstanding, I don't think he has.  I think he is a perfectly capable candidate, and that is where I differ from the hard core Romney supporters.  I think the fighting the sexual harassment fires has prevented him from addressing and closing his gaps.  And with Newt demonstrating the depth and polish Cain lacks, and without the bombshell charges to fight, the not-Romney crowd is taking notice.

 

I think your predictions on how the primaries play out are pretty safe.  I don't see Bachmann, Santorum or Huntsman surviving past Iowa either.  I think Romney has a real chance in Iowa as long as Cain maintains a significant level of support.  I could see Iowa falling in love with Newt, in which case it's not a squeaker.  If Newt stays strong, I think Romney needs to either win Iowa or be a close second in order to get the nomination.  And I think he could do it.  He has the resources and organization, and that counts for a lot in Iowa.  I think that would set him up for a strong showing in SC and FL.

 

I'm not sure I agree that Newt's infidelity will get a lot of play from either Cain or Romney.  Romney is too classy to make an issue of it (though his supporters certainly might).  The last thing the Cain campaign wants to do is start throwing infidelity stones, so I don't expect much of that out of his camp (though you never know with that crew).  If it comes, I expect it from Bachmann or Santorum.  Newt's failing in that area plays to their strengths, and they both have the temperment to make it an issue.  I think it will be a bigger issue in the general election, just as Romney's Mormonism will be a bigger issue in the general.  The left loves to be tolerant of moral failings and exotic religious belief, except when those failings or unusual beliefs afford the opportunity to paint conservatives as moralistic hypocrits or weird religious kooks.

 

I expect what Newt will get peppered with most is his list of heresies.  The marriage thing is certainly a marker of his character in my mind, but I think what it marks has already played out in his record.  He has as much as Romney to explain in his record.  However, he has more in his record to recommend him as well, so don't be surprised if he gets more benefit of the doubt.

 

Predictions -- subject to revision, of course :)

Iowa -- Close between Romney and Gingrich, very possibly with Romney getting the edge if he works the organization hard

NH -- of course Romney big, but possibly with Gingrich showing strong

SC -- Gingrich, but Romney could be very close second if he wins Iowa

FL -- Romney if Cain maintains decent level of support-- otherwise, Gingrich

 

--dmac

The sound you hear is the air coming out of another non-Romney candidate's campaign

Back on 10/19, I said,

"Cain – Got beat up at the beginning on his ‘sound bite’ tax plan by better prepared challengers this time around but he still can’t answer detailed questions about the plan; he’s very weak on foreign policy and that will come out in the next debate, it’s foreign policy-only; my prediction: his poll numbers will start to sag after the next debate when folks realize he’s not as strong as they initially thought."

As predicted, here's one of a few foreign policy gaffes he's experienced over the last few days:
http://am.blogs.cnn.com/2011/11/15/milwaukee-journal-sentinel-editor-describes-cains-libya-gaffe/

To reiterate, Cain is not prepared for prime time. He did not expect to be in the position he is in as a front-runner and his lack of preparation shows. His other gem in the video above relates to supporting collective bargaining for federal workers.
As a comparison, Cain's gaffe FAR exceeds the gaffe Perry had in not remembering the 3rd agency he wants to cut. There's no comparison.

I'm confident either Cain or Romney will be reminding the Republican primary electorate of Newt's past personal indiscretions in the near future. It remains to be seen if it matters or not.

As of now, I see it breaking out like this:

IA - Newt wins in a squeaker (Cain, Romney, Newt move on; Bachman and Santorum drop out)
NH - Romney wins going away (Huntsman drops out)
SC - Toss up
FL - Toss up

- Ryan

I may have to eat my words

I've frequently said that Newt would never be president.  That may still be safe.  But he showing some scary strength in the polls.  I think he has a real chance of being the nominee.

 

He has shot to second in the CNN/ORC national poll and only a couple points behind Romney.  The latest PPP national poll has Gingrich in the lead with an astounding 28% with Cain a close second at 25%.  Back in early September, Romney was polling at 18%. He got a bump in early October to 22% (when Cain was at 30%) but is back down in this poll to 18%.  Though the ordering is a bit different in this poll from the CNN/ORC, the directional dynamics are the same.  That is, Romney remains stagnant, Cain has shed support and Gingrich has surged.

 

The crosstabs of the PPP poll are not real good news for Romney.  I think they may reveal Gingrich to be an even bigger threat than Cain was (yes, past tense).  Romney enjoys pretty good favorability numbers across age, gender and Tea Party.  Gingrich is showing very strong favorabililty across all age groups, with both Tea Party and not-TP and, surprisingly, both genders.  Not only that, enjoys strong favorability with the supporters of the major not-Romney candidates (Cain, Perry, Bachmann), and good favoribility with Romney supporters.  As it stands now, Gingrich is poised to peel supporters from Cain, Perry and Bachmann to consilidate the not-Romney support in a way none of the others could do at this point.  And he could peel support from Romney as well.  Romney supporters have seem to dislike Cain and Perry (over 50% view them unfavorably) but over 50% view Newt favorably, the only other candidate they view favorably.

 

Romney's hopes were to have the not-Romneys remain divided leaving Romney with a plurality and/or to have Romney be everybody else's second choice and peel off supporters from other candidates as they factor in electability.  Newt may get a plurality outright (as he does now in this poll).  I think it a real possibility that Cain supporters figure that Newt is a stronger candidate and make an easy shift to Gingrich giving him a large plurality.  Same for Perry supporters unless Perry starts to improve.

 

We'll see if Newt can pull together a strong campaign staff (or maybe he already has) that can withstand and respond to the attacks that will be coming his way now.  But we've already seen the candidate himself is a nimble and resilient force so that a weak staff would not be as big a detriment (in the short term) as it obviously was to Cain.

 

Folks like me who like all the candidates (except Huntsman and Paul) will need to calculate between Romney and Gingrich.  On electibility, will Romney's Bain days hurt him more than Newt's marital infidelity and House Speakership.  On risks to conservative agenda, who will be more likely to stray from orthodoxy.  Right now, it's a toss up on both electability and risk.

 

--dmac

Up, up and away -- revisted

A while back, Ryan was crowing about Romney gaining momentum.  And I disputed his analysis here, characterizing Romney as having flat, topped out support.  The release of a slew of CNN/ORC polls prompted discussion.  At that time, Romney was +1 ahead of Cain in the national.

 

Well, a new CNN/ORC national GOP poll is out, and Romney is +2!  Momentum!  Except, Romney has gone from 26% support to 24%, a loss of 2 points.  So it appears Romney is still stuck and gaining no traction, at least for the moment.  As I said in my rebuttal, "Right now it's a race between Gingrich and Perry to unseat Cain for the not-Romney position."  This latest poll shows Cain declining from 25% to 14%, a loss of 11 points!  And it looks like Gingrich is making a strong run and beating Perry in the not-Romney race, surging from 8% in the previous poll to 22% in the current.

 

Ryan has been eager to write the Cain candicacy's obituary, and it looks like it's finally time.  I cautioned earlier about drawing too many conclusions from one poll.  But I think this is inidicative of how things will unfold (or unravel) for Cain.  Also, I heard an anecdote from Erick Erickson about the recent Rasmussen Florida GOP poll that, while Cain came out on top, each day his support was declining as the allegations unfolded.  The perfect storm brought Cain to prominence, and the perfect storm looks to be taking him out and blowing Gingrich in.

 

I think Gingrich is really the last man standing.  And he has a history of going off the reservation such that he could implode as well.  The good news for him is the time is much more limited for that to happen.  The bad news for him, given the amount of baggage he has (both political and personal), there almost certainly is dirt to be dug and he will have even less recovery time when it starts flying.  Though he presents well now as a conservative idealogue, his history of going off the reservation has to make him at least as big a political risk as Romney for conservatives.  And I think at crunch time, electibility and political risk will be the main tradeoff in conservatives' calculations.

 

I've made fun of Romney's stagnant support.  But he is still in a pretty good position.  He hasn't done or said anything really terrible.  He is acceptably conservative to most of the party.  He presents well.  As the time gets closer to the primaries, many more people are going to be looking at electability.  Cain was suspect on that score even before the allegations and has to be considered damaged goods (unless he can show definitively all are false and that he is a vicitim of a hackish political takedown).  Newt has a lot of political baggage and his personal life will present the same type of problem with women voters that Cain now has.  Perry has continued to be irrelevant.  That leaves Romney as the most electible by process of elimination.  And not only that, the polls continue to show that in matchups with Obama (although "generic GOP candidate" still polls best--but he ain't running).

 

Romny isn't rising yet.  But it's just a matter of time.

 

--dmac