Rasmussen NH poll

The latest Rasmussen NH poll is out.  Romney's lead is still comfortable, but it has shrunk.

 

Over a week ago I noted a poll which saw a large drop in Romney's support and characterized it as a collapse.  I don't know much about that particular pollster to know if it is reliable or not.  Other polls coming out since then have not shown the same low level, and only one had any prior data points to determine any trend.  The Rasmussen poll seems to agree with the general trend, though I don't think it really consitutes a collapse.

 

                 10/25 11/28 chg

Romney      41      34      -7

Gingrich        8      24    +16

Paul            11      14     +3

Huntsman     7      11      +4

Cain            17       5     -12

Perry            4        2      -2

Bachmann    3        2      -1

Santorum      1       1

Other/Undec  8       7       -1

 

What's interesting is that the gains by Huntsman and Paul are exactly the amount of the loss by Romney.  And the gain by Gingrich is almost exactly the amount of the total lost by Cain, Perry and Bachmann.  When I do a similar analysis of the NH Journal/Magellan poll, the same pattern holds.  It looks like Gingrich's gains are mainly from consolidation of the conservative base, which makes sense, rather than from a serious threat to Romney's base.  And it makes some sense that Huntsman would get a second look from establishment type Romney supporters.  What doesn't make as much sense is the increase in support to Ron Paul coming at the expense of Romney (if that is in fact what is happening).  I guess it could be independents not being excited about Romney and giving Paul a closer look.

 

I have a hard time seeing Romney losing enough support to either Huntsman or Gingrich to endanger a primary win and to justify heavy campaigning in NH.  But it's worth keeping an eye on.

 

--dmac