Thursday, November 17, 2011

Amazing poll numbers

The new Fox News poll has Newt in front with 23%, ahead of Romney by 1 point.  Cain has slid to 15%.
 
The interesting numbers are in the breakouts for questions 7, 8 and 9 on the matchup of Romney, Cain and Gingrich against Obama.  Mitt is the only one that beats Obama, 44-42.  Cain and Gingrich lose 47-38 and 46-41 respectively.  What is interesting is that no matter which GOP candidate is running, between 9% and 13% of Republicans in the poll indicated they would actively pull the lever for Obama.  And between 24% and 28% of those identifying as conservative would vote for Romney.  Not that they are undecided or would not vote, but would vote for Obama.  Incredible.
 
Mitt generates the fewest defections from both Republicans and conservatives (9% and 24% respectively) and Cain the most (13% and 28%).  What that tells me is that Romney supporters, partisan Republicans and "conservatives", are the most likely to defect and vote against the party's nominee if it isn't their guy.
 
--dmac

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