Cain balloon?

Well, we had a Lazarus candidate in McCain win last time, so I don't see why little David Cain can't pull it off. Who says Goliath can't lose twice?

Did you see the latest Rasmussen? That's the one poll I respect almost without question. The good news is that Romney has increased his support from a month ago up to 29%. And Perry has slipped (plunged) from first to fourth behind Newt. What's not so good news for Romney is that Cain has surged from 7% a month ago to tie with Romney at 29%.

At this time in the last cycle, the RCP looked like this:
Rudy 30.2
Fred 19.5
McCain 13.0
Mitt 11.2
Huck 6.2
Paul 2.2

By early January just before McCain really surged, it looked like this:
Huck 20.7
McCain 20.0
Rudy 19.0
Mitt 12.0
Fred 10.7
Paul 3.7

Last cycle, Rudy and McCain were competing for the establishment spot. This cycle, Mitt has no competition there. The not-McCain/Rudy crowd back then was searching for a candidate to rally behind and were split between Huck, Mitt and Fred. I think Rick Perry is this cycle's Fred Thompson. Everybody was just waiting for Fred to jump in. His numbers were high in anticipation. But once he got in, he underwhelmed. I think Perry is showing a lot of the same traits. Perry could be this cycle's McCain, the imploded candidate who resurrected to come roaring back, but I don't see it.

By this time last cycle, McCain had bottomed out and was rising slowly. I see parallels with Mitt, though his slump this cycle was not so much an implosion like McCain but just the entry of other candidates. Mitt is on the rise as folks start to make up their minds. Bachmann has had a peak already and is in decline. Perry has done a Fred, big buildup and big disappointment, and I don't see him recovering.

Cain. I see Cain as this cycle's Huckabee, only better. He's much more solid on the economic issues. Cain doesn't have the religious baggage that Huckabee had (and that baggage was ever more significant for him than Mitt's was). As people give him a second look, and as his poll numbers increase, the winnability factor recedes somewhat. He is in a better position that Huck in that respect. Huck, Mitt and Rudy were his competition as winnable alternatives to McCain, and Mitt continued to be so. This cycle, I think all the other candidates have demonstrated they are not winnable alternatives to Cain for knocking off Romney. We'll see if the Newt and Perry supporters decide sooner or later to defect to a more electable candidate. The sooner that happens, the better Cain's position will be in attracting money as the last not-Romney man standing. The longer it takes to play out, the better it is for Romney.

Should be interesting how this turns out. I think we'll see some tweeks to the 9-9-9. And a little more preparation on the numbers Cain cites (his example about the current tax burden of family of four with $50K income was off--and he checked the math!). And I think we'll see a broader policy offering as well, though probably not 59 points :)

Romney Rising! But little shepherd David is Raising Cain!